Prediction Markets Quant

Find the 2026 fantasy players whose Average Draft Position swings most between platforms — consensus vs ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo, Underdog, etc. A wide gap (e.g. "consensus RB18 but ESPN drafts him RB30") is a platform-specific value: grab him where he goes latest. All 154 gaps are FREE — no key, no email. Pro adds the judgment layer on each row. Use for "ADP differences by platform", "where is a player cheapest", "ADP arbitrage", "who falls on ESPN vs Sleeper". Filter by position (QB/RB/WR/TE/FLEX).

Compare a market price against the historical base rate for a class of events and get the gap in percentage points plus a signal and sample-size quality. Pass either a known base-rate id (one of: incumbent_reelected, fed_hold_unemp_below_4, fed_cut_cpi_above_3, recession_called_12mo, sp500_positive_year, bitcoin_above_100k_eoy, gdp_growth_above_2, cpi_above_3, senate_incumbent_wins_primary, vix_below_20_eoy, interest_rate_cut_next_meeting, major_sports_upset) or your own baseRateValue. Use for "how does this price compare to history", "is the market ignoring the base rate", "historical frequency vs market".

Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".

Given the current pick number and the players already drafted, return the best players still on the board (2026, any scoring format), each with projection, ADP, and a value flag, plus the biggest model value available. The full remaining pool is FREE — no key, no email. Pro adds boom/bust week odds and the positional tier breaks across everyone still on the board. Prefer this mid-draft when the user asks "who is the best available", "who should I take next", "best player left". Input: pick_number, drafted (names already gone).

Calculate the expected-value edge on a Kalshi or Polymarket prediction-market contract. Given the current market price (in cents, i.e. the implied probability) and your own probability estimate, returns the % edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP signal with a plain-English read. Use for "is this contract mispriced", "what is my edge", "should I take this position". From the PredictionMarketsPicks desk, which publishes a settled per-engine record — every signal graded against the market that priced it, wins and losses both: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Grade a same-game combo (parlay-style multi-leg position) on a prediction market against its fair value. Given each leg price in cents and your correlation-aware estimate of the true joint win probability, returns the fair-value ODDS BAND to grade a quote against. Pass offeredOdds — the price your platform actually quotes for the combo (Kalshi combo RFQ or an SGP product) — to get the expected-value %, a negative-correlation-trap flag, and a 7-tier verdict (SMASH / PLAY / LEAN / RISK / NO_VALUE / PASS / RUN). Without offeredOdds it returns fair value + band only (no verdict) — never grade EV off the product of the leg prices, which no venue pays. Use for "is this combo worth it", "grade my parlay quote", "same-game combo value". OR pass nflGame (e.g. "NE-SEA") and we do the hard part for you: that game's real Kalshi legs, moneyline, spreads, the game-total ladder and PLAYER PROPS, both sides of every contract. Call it with nflGame alone to list the legs and their ids, then again with legIds to have us compute the correlation-aware joint ourselves — no estimate needed from you. Game legs are priced against a market-anchored fair line (edge = fair − market; the raw model is shown beside it). A prop is priced conditional on the game script — pace (the total) and flow (the margin) — inside the same model as the game legs, so four unders that all need a low-scoring game are priced as the correlated slip they are instead of being multiplied. From the PredictionMarketsPicks desk, which publishes a settled per-engine record — every signal graded against the market that priced it, wins and losses both: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Get today's highest-conviction silver or bitcoin trade signal from the PMP edge model — the Kalshi daily-silver (KXSILVERD) or hourly bitcoin (KXBTCD) strike with the largest model edge, as a trade ticket: entry side and price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge in percentage points, confidence tier, and quarter-Kelly sizing. Pro key required. Use for "silver edge today", "bitcoin trade signal", "is there a commodity edge". Pass tickers[] to check specific Kalshi markets — e.g. paste your Kalshi Pro screener watchlist (returns the signal only if it matches the strike PMP is modeling).

Compare 2–4 players side by side for a 2026 fantasy draft (standard, half-PPR or full-PPR) — projection, floor/ceiling, ADP, draft round, and value flag — and get a pick recommendation plus which one is the best market value. Free, no key. Use for "<A> or <B> in fantasy", "who should I draft, <A> or <B>", "compare <A> and <B>", "start/draft <A> vs <B>".

Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

The PredictionMarketsPicks 2026 fantasy football draft board (standard, half-PPR or full-PPR) — every player ranked, blending our projection model with consensus ADP, showing projected points, ADP, draft round, and a SLEEPER / BUST value flag. Filter by position (QB/RB/WR/TE/FLEX). THE COMPLETE BOARD IS FREE — all ~330 players, no key, no email, no signup. Pro adds the judgment on top: boom/bust week odds per player and positional tier breaks. Use for "fantasy football rankings 2026", "who are the top RBs", "draft board", "best available by position".

Read the edge alerts our models generate on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, and mispricings — as a live feed. Each alert carries feed, tier (SPECULATIVE/MODERATE/STRONG), side, price in cents, model probability, edge in percentage points, and a Kalshi market link. A Pro key returns the feed in real time; without a key you get the same feed delayed 24 hours with the thesis stripped. Every subscriber receives the identical, impersonal feed at the same time — the signals are not tailored to any individual. Filters (feed, min_tier, since) SELECT which alerts you see; they never change the signal content. Use for "any edge on Kalshi", "weather trade signals", "latest mispricings". Impersonal market analysis for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Trade responsibly.

Explain WHY the 2026 draft board ranks a player where it does, factor by factor: projection, floor/ceiling band, boom/bust week shape, and the three separate ranks a board row carries — our model's own positional rank, the market's ADP, and the published blend between them — plus the edge between model and market. Also states what the projection does NOT model (injuries, camp news, schedule). Free, no key. Use for "why do you have <player> there", "explain <player> ranking", "what's driving <player>'s projection", "why is <player> a sleeper/bust". For a plain outlook or a verdict rather than the reasoning, use player_outlook.

Live market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut, hold or hike at each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting, from Kalshi. Returns the next meeting with days-until and its full strike breakdown, plus the whole remaining rate path and the current fed funds rate. Free, no key. Also returns a cross-venue block comparing Kalshi against Polymarket and CME fed funds futures-implied odds for the next meeting, with the disagreement in percentage points. Free, no key. Use for "will the Fed cut rates", "fed rate hike odds", "next FOMC meeting odds", "what is the market pricing for September", "do Kalshi and Polymarket agree on the Fed".

Scan for cross-platform price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same sports contract (NBA, NHL, MLB, World Cup). Returns each game where the two venues disagree on the implied probability, the gap in percentage points, the WATCH/ARB signal, and which venue is cheaper. Free without a key: the single largest gap on the board, in full detail. One email returns the top 3; Pro returns the whole board. Use for "where is the arbitrage", "cross-platform price gaps", "Kalshi vs Polymarket mispricing". Every signal our engines publish is settled against the market that priced it and scored wins and losses in public: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

Scan Kalshi college football and NFL spread/total ladders for internal price inconsistencies — strikes priced out of order against each other on the same side of the same game. Returns locked arbitrage (buy the low strike, sell the high one), crossed-mid inversions with the resting orders that capture them, and wide two-sided books worth making a market in, each with both tickers, both books, gross edge in cents, volume, kickoff and tier. The full board is free, no key. Measured Sept 2026: CFB spread ladders are internally inconsistent 5.8% of the time versus 0.3% for NFL. Pro adds the exact resting orders, net-of-fee edge and quarter-Kelly size on every row. Use for "is any CFB ladder mispriced", "where can I make a market on Kalshi today", "ladder arbitrage", "Kalshi spread ladder crossed".

The US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime plus the six category scores (growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment). The composite and the regime call are free without a key, always, along with 2 category scores; one email returns 4 and Pro returns all six. Use for "how is the US economy", "macro regime", "risk-on or risk-off". (NFL edges moved to the dedicated nfl_edge tool.)

Where the PredictionMarketsPicks NFL model disagrees with live Kalshi prices — the actionable edge across every NFL market: game moneylines this week, season win-total futures, MVP, and championship (playoff / conference / Super Bowl) odds. Returns model probability, Kalshi price, edge in percentage points, and the side, biggest edges first. Pro key required. Use for "which NFL games are mispriced on Kalshi", "NFL win total edges", "NFL MVP value", "Super Bowl odds edge", "NFL prediction market picks". Pass tickers[] to check specific Kalshi markets — e.g. paste your Kalshi Pro screener watchlist (applies to the futures / mvp / championship markets, which are ticker-addressable).

For every NFL contract that trades as a LADDER of strikes — game spreads (KXNFLSPREAD), season win totals (KXNFLWINS) and player props — the Kalshi price at every listed strike beside our full probability distribution, and the derived verdict: SHAPE (we disagree about the tail, not the middle), LOCATION (we think the median sits elsewhere), PRICED (under 5pp everywhere), or PARTIAL (fewer than 3 model rungs). Ranked by the widest published gap. Our number is published only between 30% and 70% where it is measured calibrated; other rungs return the market only. Free, no key. Use for "where does the model disagree with Kalshi on the Rams spread", "which win-total rung is mispriced", "is the Kyren Williams rushing disagreement about the tail or the median", "biggest ladder gaps this week".

The PredictionMarketsPicks NFL power ratings — PWR for all 32 teams: points per game above an average team on a neutral field, where PWR = Off PR + Def PR + ST PR. Includes each team's rank and tier. Free, no key. Use for "best NFL teams by power rating", "NFL power rankings 2026", "is Baltimore overrated", "how good is Kansas City", "NFL team ratings".

This week's NFL player-prop prices, venue by venue: every Kalshi prop strike with a real two-sided book, the book consensus read at that exact strike, DraftKings/FanDuel/BetRivers lines, Novig and ProphetX exchange quotes, the Kalshi-vs-consensus gap in cents, and WHERE THE BEST PRICE for each side actually is (cents per $1 of payout, Kalshi net of fee). Free, no key. Filter by team, game, player or stat. Use for "where is the best price on Puka Nacua receiving yards", "Kalshi vs DraftKings NFL props", "NFL prop prices this week", "is Kalshi cheaper than the books".

NFL player-prop edges — the PredictionMarketsPicks projection vs the Kalshi prop line for passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions, and anytime touchdown. Every Kalshi prop is an "X or more" contract; each row returns the contract (e.g. "3+ receptions"), the call (YES / NO), our odds and the Kalshi price for the called side, the model projection, the edge, and the raw over/under inputs. Live in-season (opens NFL Week 1). Pro key required. Use for "NFL player prop edges", "best NFL props today", "passing yards over under", "receiving yards prop value".

Turn an NFL point spread and game total into win probability, projected score, cover probability, and over/under probability — using the PredictionMarketsPicks scoring-margin model. Provide the spread (home-favored = negative, e.g. -6.5) and optional total, OR two team abbreviations to auto-derive the spread from the power ratings. Given two teams it also returns OUR OWN game total (`model_total`) and the probability the game goes over the total you passed (`model_over_pct`), and it credits NO home-field advantage on the nine international neutral-site games — `basis` names the venue when it applies. Free, no key. Use for "NFL win probability from the spread", "what does a -7 spread mean", "who wins Chiefs vs 49ers", "NFL score prediction", "what total does your model project", "is this game at a neutral site".

A single player's 2026 fantasy outlook (standard, half-PPR or full-PPR): projected points and per-game, floor/ceiling range, boom/bust odds, consensus ADP and draft round, our positional rank, and whether the model tags him a SLEEPER or a BUST vs the market, with a one-line thesis. Free, no key. Use for "is <player> a sleeper", "<player> fantasy outlook 2026", "should I draft <player>", "<player> projection".

Live Kalshi odds for one 2026 midterm race — Senate, governor or a competitive House district — by state name ("Kansas"), state code ("KS"), slug ("kansas-senate", "michigan-governor", "tx-34-house") or district ("TX-34"). Returns every contract leg with its price in cents, 24h volume, open interest and Kalshi link; the seat holder, their role and the structure rating; the implied probability the Democrat wins where provable; the named forecasters’ bands where we track them; and the race page URL. A state with both a Senate and a governor race returns the Senate race and lists the alternatives. Prices are never estimated. Free, no key. Use for "who wins the Kansas Senate race", "Michigan governor odds", "what is Kalshi pricing for Texas Senate", "Ossoff vs Collins market price".

Scan Polymarket contracts for mispricings against the PMP model (a probability swarm). Returns each market where the model disagrees with the price, the direction to take, the edge in percentage points, and quarter-Kelly sizing, sorted by absolute edge. Pro key required. Use for "where is the edge today", "mispriced markets", "what should I trade".

The whole 2026 U.S. Senate map in one call: every seat on the ballot with the seat holder and their role (incumbent, appointed, open seat), the structure rating (Toss-up / Lean / Likely / Safe), the named forecasters’ published bands where we track them, and the live Kalshi price — the implied probability the Democrat wins where the legs make that provable, otherwise the favorite contract and its price in cents. Closest race first, with a page URL per seat and the hub. Prices are never estimated: a seat Kalshi has not priced returns null. Free, no key. Use for "2026 Senate map", "which Senate seats are toss-ups", "what does the market say about Senate control race by race", "where do prediction markets disagree with Cook / Sabato".

The biggest gaps between the PredictionMarketsPicks model and consensus ADP for 2026 (standard, half-PPR or full-PPR): SLEEPERS the model ranks well above their draft cost, and BUSTS it ranks below. Filter by position or draft round. Every sleeper and every bust is FREE — the complete list, no key, no email. Use for "fantasy sleepers 2026", "draft busts to avoid", "undervalued players", "overrated fantasy players", "late-round sleepers".

Recommend the single best player to draft right now given the roster already on the user's team and their pick number, weighing positional need against the best value available (2026, any scoring format). The pick AND every alternative are free — no key, no email. Pro adds the reasoning behind each one. Prefer this mid-draft when the user asks "who should I take", "who do I draft", "what do I need". Input: roster (names on their team), pick_number, and optionally drafted (names already gone). Without drafted, the board is estimated from pick_number using consensus ADP. Returns one pick + a one-line reason.