{"name":"com.predictionmarketspicks/weather","slug":"predictionmarketspicks-weather","title":"Weather Markets Edge Desk","description":"Kalshi weather markets: daily-high board beside the NWS forecast, live edges, EV, Kelly, base rates.","url":"https://mcp.market/server/predictionmarketspicks-weather","rating":null,"grade":"B","score":81,"certified":false,"status":"active","category":"maps","tags":["maps"],"presence":{"score":23,"stars":0,"forks":1,"downloads_week":null,"last_push_at":"2026-10-14T22:08:11.000Z","license":"MIT"},"uptime":{"percent":100,"checks":28,"ok":28,"last_checked_at":"2026-11-04T04:30:31.538Z","last_ok_at":"2026-11-04T04:30:31.538Z","latency_ms":506},"claimed":false,"transport":"remote","callable_via_gateway":true,"default_price_micros":0,"repository":"https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp","website":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/weather","version":"1.2.0","remotes":[{"type":"streamable-http","url":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"}],"packages":[],"tools":[{"name":"base_rate_gap","description":"Use for \"how does this price compare to history\" and \"is the market ignoring the base rate\". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.","write_action":false,"price_micros":0,"input_schema":{"type":"object","properties":{"marketPrice":{"description":"Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.","anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"string"}]},"baseRateId":{"description":"Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source). One of: incumbent_reelected · fed_hold_unemp_below_4 · fed_cut_cpi_above_3 · recession_called_12mo · sp500_positive_year · bitcoin_above_100k_eoy · gdp_growth_above_2 · cpi_above_3 · senate_incumbent_wins_primary · vix_below_20_eoy · interest_rate_cut_next_meeting · major_sports_upset.","anyOf":[{"type":"string"},{"type":"string","enum":["incumbent_reelected","fed_hold_unemp_below_4","fed_cut_cpi_above_3","recession_called_12mo","sp500_positive_year","bitcoin_above_100k_eoy","gdp_growth_above_2","cpi_above_3","senate_incumbent_wins_primary","vix_below_20_eoy","interest_rate_cut_next_meeting","major_sports_upset"]}]},"baseRateValue":{"description":"Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given.","type":"number","minimum":0,"maximum":100}},"$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"}},{"name":"bayes_update","description":"Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for \"update my estimate with new information\", \"posterior probability\", \"how does this news change the odds\".","write_action":true,"price_micros":0,"input_schema":{"type":"object","properties":{"prior":{"description":"Prior probability the hypothesis is true, in % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.","anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"string"}]},"evidence":{"description":"One or more evidence items, applied in order. Each item needs likelihoodIfTrue and likelihoodIfFalse on the 0–100 scale, e.g. [{ \"likelihoodIfTrue\": 80, \"likelihoodIfFalse\": 20 }].","minItems":1,"type":"array","items":{"type":"object","properties":{"label":{"description":"Optional short caption for this evidence. Defaults to \"Evidence 1\", \"Evidence 2\", …","type":"string"},"likelihoodIfTrue":{"description":"P(observing this evidence | hypothesis is true), in % (0–100). Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"3\", \"3pp\", \"3%\").","anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"string"}]},"likelihoodIfFalse":{"description":"P(observing this evidence | hypothesis is false), in % (0–100). Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"3\", \"3pp\", \"3%\").","anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"string"}]}},"required":["likelihoodIfTrue","likelihoodIfFalse"]}}},"$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"}},{"name":"calculate_ev","description":"Use for \"is this contract mispriced\" and \"what is my edge\". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.","write_action":false,"price_micros":0,"input_schema":{"type":"object","properties":{"marketPrice":{"description":"Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.","anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"string"}]},"yourProbability":{"description":"Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.","anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"string"}]}},"$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"}},{"name":"convert_probability","description":"Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for \"what is +150 as a probability\", \"convert 62% to American odds\", \"decimal to implied odds\".","write_action":false,"price_micros":0,"input_schema":{"type":"object","properties":{"value":{"description":"The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"+150\", \"62%\", \"2.5\").","anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"string"}]},"format":{"description":"Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.","anyOf":[{"type":"string"},{"type":"string","enum":["probability","american","decimal"]}]}},"$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"}},{"name":"edge_alerts","description":"Use for \"any edge on Kalshi\" and \"weather trade signals\". Our model alerts on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings — with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edge and link. Real time with Pro; free is delayed 24h without the thesis. One identical, impersonal feed for every subscriber; filters only select. Informational, not investment advice.","write_action":false,"price_micros":0,"input_schema":{"type":"object","properties":{"feed":{"description":"Comma-separated feeds to include: weather, bitcoin, silver, gold, oil, mispricing, sports_arb, nfl. Omit for all.","type":"string"},"min_tier":{"description":"Minimum confidence tier (returns that tier and above). One of: SPECULATIVE · MODERATE · STRONG.","anyOf":[{"type":"string"},{"type":"string","enum":["SPECULATIVE","MODERATE","STRONG"]}]},"since":{"description":"ISO-8601 timestamp — only alerts created after it.","type":"string"},"limit":{"description":"Max alerts to return (default 25). Values above 100 are clamped to 100.","anyOf":[{"anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"string"}]},{"type":"null"}]}},"$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"}},{"name":"kelly_size","description":"Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for \"how much should I stake\", \"what is my position size\", \"Kelly sizing for this trade\".","write_action":false,"price_micros":0,"input_schema":{"type":"object","properties":{"winProbability":{"description":"Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.","anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"string"}]},"marketPrice":{"description":"Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, \"55%\", \"55¢\", \"$0.55\", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.","anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"string"}]},"bankroll":{"description":"Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure. Accepts a number or a numeric string (\"1000\", \"$1,000\").","anyOf":[{"type":"number"},{"type":"string"}]},"fraction":{"description":"Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth.","anyOf":[{"type":"string"},{"type":"string","enum":["full","half","quarter","eighth"]}]}},"required":["winProbability","marketPrice"],"$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"}},{"name":"weather_board","description":"Use for \"Kalshi NYC high temperature odds\". Every open Kalshi daily-high strike in 13 cities: YES price, settlement station and source, the strict-comparison rule, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it. Pass city (\"nyc\", \"KXHIGHCHI\"). Market data only.","write_action":false,"price_micros":0,"input_schema":{"type":"object","properties":{"city":{"description":"City name or series (\"nyc\", \"KXHIGHTBOS\"). Omit for all.","type":"string","maxLength":40},"day":{"description":"today · tomorrow · all (default).","anyOf":[{"type":"string"},{"type":"string","enum":["today","tomorrow","all"]}]}},"$schema":"https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema"}}],"scan":{"score":81,"grade":"B","scanned_at":"2026-10-14T22:09:49.672Z","report":{"scannerVersion":"0.1.10","scannedAt":"2026-10-14T22:09:49.594Z","components":{"code":{"score":-1,"max":25,"notes":["remote-only server, no package to scan"]},"reliability":{"score":20,"max":20,"notes":["remote reachable in 1771ms"]},"poisoning":{"score":15,"max":15,"notes":["7 tool descriptions checked"]},"auth":{"score":3,"max":15,"notes":["open endpoint exposes 1 write-action tools with no auth"]},"maintenance":{"score":15,"max":15,"notes":["last push 0 days ago"]},"identity":{"score":8,"max":10,"notes":["registry namespace matches repository owner","website matches verified namespace"]}},"findings":[{"id":"auth.open-write","severity":"high","component":"auth","title":"Write-action tools reachable without authentication"}],"inputs":{"probes":[{"url":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry","reachable":true,"authRequired":false,"latencyMs":1771,"serverInfo":{"name":"predictionmarketspicks-weather","version":"1.2.0"}}],"packages":[],"repo":{"found":true,"owner":"predictionmarketspicks","repo":"mcp","archived":false,"pushedAt":"2026-10-14T22:08:11Z","stars":0,"forks":1,"openIssues":0,"ownerType":"User","ownerAvatarUrl":"https://avatars.githubusercontent.com/u/268510229?v=4","ownerCreatedAt":"2026-03-16T04:40:12Z","license":"MIT"},"icon":{"url":"https://predictionmarketspicks.com/apple-touch-icon.png","source":"registry","width":180,"height":180},"presence":{"stars":0,"forks":1,"downloadsWeek":null,"license":"MIT","lastPushAt":"2026-10-14T22:08:11.000Z","score":23}}}},"grade_history":[],"reviews":[]}